COVID-19 DEATHS PREDICTION WITH ORACLE MACHINE LEARNING NOTEBOOKS | UPDATE 6


The model predicts the future deaths (based on daily deaths reported by the source of information) for the next 30 days from the date of calculation onwards.

Source of information: https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv

Algorithm: EXPONENTIAL_SMOOTHING

Prediction step: 30 days onwards

Date of calculation: 11th, October 2020 22:00 CEST

Prediction tool: Oracle Autonomous Database version 18c, Always Free instance created in Frankfurt datacenter on 4th Apr 2020

Disclaimer: This is not a scientific research work. It is just the output of a set of powerful tools and technologies. As it is, with no warranties. Use it as your own risk.

Note: We only predict deaths, because although it is not clear what the countries are reporting, accurate or not, deaths are countable while infection cases are more controversial because the diversity of testing strategies across regions.

See also this post

World deaths prediction for the next 30 days

Prediction DatePrediction of deaths for next 30 daysDeaths at the date of prediction
23/Apr/2020338,568
28/Apr/2020281,737
3/may/2020368,233
10/may/2020399,626
17/may/2020433,254
18/jun/2020647,278450,630
11/oct/20201,238,4311,065,393
11/nov/2020??
11/dec/2020??
11/jan/2021??
11/feb/2021??
11/mar/2021??
11/apr/2021??
Total deaths prediction table

World prediction graph (oct 11)

A sinusoid with the X axis sitting on a sloping horizontal line

World prediction graph (jun 18)

A sinusoid with the X axis sitting on a sloping ascending ramp

World prediction graph (may 17)

A sinusoid with the X axis sitting on a sloping descending ramp

Prediction on May 17th 2020

Stay safe!!

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