The model predicts the future deaths (based on daily deaths reported by the source of information) for the next 30 days from the date of calculation onwards.
Source of information: https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv
Algorithm: EXPONENTIAL_SMOOTHING
Prediction step: 30 days onwards
Date of calculation: 11th, October 2020 22:00 CEST
Prediction tool: Oracle Autonomous Database version 18c, Always Free instance created in Frankfurt datacenter on 4th Apr 2020
Disclaimer: This is not a scientific research work. It is just the output of a set of powerful tools and technologies. As it is, with no warranties. Use it as your own risk.
Note: We only predict deaths, because although it is not clear what the countries are reporting, accurate or not, deaths are countable while infection cases are more controversial because the diversity of testing strategies across regions.
See also this post
World deaths prediction for the next 30 days
| Prediction Date | Prediction of deaths for next 30 days | Deaths at the date of prediction | ||
| 23/Apr/2020 | 338,568 | |||
| 28/Apr/2020 | 281,737 | |||
| 3/may/2020 | 368,233 | |||
| 10/may/2020 | 399,626 | |||
| 17/may/2020 | 433,254 | |||
| 18/jun/2020 | 647,278 | 450,630 | ||
| 11/oct/2020 | 1,238,431 | 1,065,393 | ||
| 11/nov/2020 | ? | ? | ||
| 11/dec/2020 | ? | ? | ||
| 11/jan/2021 | ? | ? | ||
| 11/feb/2021 | ? | ? | ||
| 11/mar/2021 | ? | ? | ||
| 11/apr/2021 | ? | ? |
World prediction graph (oct 11)
A sinusoid with the X axis sitting on a sloping horizontal line
World prediction graph (jun 18)
A sinusoid with the X axis sitting on a sloping ascending ramp
World prediction graph (may 17)
A sinusoid with the X axis sitting on a sloping descending ramp
Stay safe!!
approaching off the bow 