COVID-19 DEATHS PREDICTION WITH ORACLE MACHINE LEARNING NOTEBOOKS | UPDATE 6


The model predicts the future deaths based on daily deaths reported by the source of information for the next 30 days from the date of calculation onwards.

Source of information: https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv

Algorithm: EXPONENTIAL_SMOOTHING

Prediction step: 30 days onwards

Date of calculation: 19th, Jul 2020 23:00 CEST

Prediction tool: Oracle Autonomous Database version 18c, Always Free instance created in Frankfurt datacenter on 4th Apr 2020

Disclaimer: This is not a scientific research work. It is just the output of a set of powerful tools and technologies. As it is, with no warranties. Use it as your own risk.

Note: We only predict deaths, because although it is not clear what the countries are reporting, accurate or not, deaths are countable while infection cases are more controversial because the lack of tests.

See also this post

Deaths prediction for the next 30 days (world)

Prediction dateDeaths as of Prediction DateDeaths prediction 30 days onwards
23/Apr/2020338,568
28/apr/2020281,737
3/May/2020368,233
10/may/2020399,626
17/May/2020433,254
18/Jun/2020647,278
19/Jul/2020601,934804,762

Prediction graphs

A sinusoid with the X axis sitting on a sloping descending ramp

May 17th 2020

A sinusoid with the X axis sitting on a sloping ascending ramp

18th Jun 2020

A sinusoid with the X axis sitting on a sloping ascending ramp

19th Jul 2020

Stay safe!!

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