The model predicts the future deaths based on daily deaths reported by the source of information for the next 30 days from the date of calculation onwards.
Source of information: https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv
Algorithm: EXPONENTIAL_SMOOTHING
Prediction step: 30 days onwards
Date of calculation: 19th, Jul 2020 23:00 CEST
Prediction tool: Oracle Autonomous Database version 18c, Always Free instance created in Frankfurt datacenter on 4th Apr 2020
Disclaimer: This is not a scientific research work. It is just the output of a set of powerful tools and technologies. As it is, with no warranties. Use it as your own risk.
Note: We only predict deaths, because although it is not clear what the countries are reporting, accurate or not, deaths are countable while infection cases are more controversial because the lack of tests.
See also this post
Deaths prediction for the next 30 days (world)
| Prediction date | Deaths as of Prediction Date | Deaths prediction 30 days onwards |
| 23/Apr/2020 | 338,568 | |
| 28/apr/2020 | 281,737 | |
| 3/May/2020 | 368,233 | |
| 10/may/2020 | 399,626 | |
| 17/May/2020 | 433,254 | |
| 18/Jun/2020 | 647,278 | |
| 19/Jul/2020 | 601,934 | 804,762 |
Prediction graphs
A sinusoid with the X axis sitting on a sloping descending ramp
A sinusoid with the X axis sitting on a sloping ascending ramp
A sinusoid with the X axis sitting on a sloping ascending ramp
Stay safe!!
approaching off the bow 