The model predicts the future deaths based on daily deaths reported by the source of information for the next 30 days from the date of calculation onwards.
Source of information: https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv
Algorithm: EXPONENTIAL_SMOOTHING
Prediction step: 30 days onwards
Date of calculation: 17th, May 2020 13:00 CEST
Prediction tool: Oracle Autonomous Database version 18c, Always Free instance created in Frankfurt datacenter on 4th Apr 2020
Disclaimer: This is not a scientific research work. It is just the output of a set of powerful tools and technologies. As it is, with no warranties. Use it as your own risk.
See also this post
Table of predictions
Total deaths reported on 17th may | Prediction calculated as of 23/Apr/2020 | Prediction calculated as of 28/Apr/2020 | Prediction calculated as of 3/may/2020 | Prediction calculated as of 10/may/2020 | Prediction calculated as of 17/may/2020 | |
CHINA | 4,638 | 3,353 | 3,353 | 3,353 | 3,353 | 3,353 |
ITALY | 31,763 | 32,531 | 30,197 | 37,305 | 32,522 | 34,023 |
SPAIN | 27,650 | 27,087 | 25,984 | 26,726 | 27,825 | 28,268 |
UK | 34,466 | 29,671 | 26,213 | 44,298 | 37,638 | 43,473 |
GERMANY | 7,914 | 9,698 | 8,404 | 8,386 | 7,841 | 8,227 |
USA | 88,754 | 108,860 | 83,572 | 103,769 | 122,335 | 119,166 |
WORLD | 311,675 | 338,568 | 281,737 | 368,233 | 399,626 | 433,254 |
When deaths will be (almost) zero?
Adding a new table depicting the date in which deaths will be theoretically zero.
COUNTRY | Zero deaths predicted date as of May 17th 2020 |
CHINA | Apr 18th 2020 |
ITALY | Jun 6th 2020 |
SPAIN | May 26th 2020 |
UK | Not in the next 30 days |
GERMANY | May 25th 2020 |
USA | Not in the next 30 days |
WORLD | Not in the next 30 days |
World prediction graph
A sinusoid with the X axis sitting on a sloping ramp

Stay safe!!