The model predicts the future deaths based on daily deaths reported by the source of information for the next 30 days from the date of calculation onwards.
Source of information: https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv
Algorithm: EXPONENTIAL_SMOOTHING
Prediction step: 30 days onwards
Date of calculation: 17th, May 2020 13:00 CEST
Prediction tool: Oracle Autonomous Database version 18c, Always Free instance created in Frankfurt datacenter on 4th Apr 2020
Disclaimer: This is not a scientific research work. It is just the output of a set of powerful tools and technologies. As it is, with no warranties. Use it as your own risk.
See also this post
Table of predictions
| Total deaths reported on 17th may | Prediction calculated as of 23/Apr/2020 | Prediction calculated as of 28/Apr/2020 | Prediction calculated as of 3/may/2020 | Prediction calculated as of 10/may/2020 | Prediction calculated as of 17/may/2020 | |
| CHINA | 4,638 | 3,353 | 3,353 | 3,353 | 3,353 | 3,353 |
| ITALY | 31,763 | 32,531 | 30,197 | 37,305 | 32,522 | 34,023 |
| SPAIN | 27,650 | 27,087 | 25,984 | 26,726 | 27,825 | 28,268 |
| UK | 34,466 | 29,671 | 26,213 | 44,298 | 37,638 | 43,473 |
| GERMANY | 7,914 | 9,698 | 8,404 | 8,386 | 7,841 | 8,227 |
| USA | 88,754 | 108,860 | 83,572 | 103,769 | 122,335 | 119,166 |
| WORLD | 311,675 | 338,568 | 281,737 | 368,233 | 399,626 | 433,254 |
When deaths will be (almost) zero?
Adding a new table depicting the date in which deaths will be theoretically zero.
| COUNTRY | Zero deaths predicted date as of May 17th 2020 |
| CHINA | Apr 18th 2020 |
| ITALY | Jun 6th 2020 |
| SPAIN | May 26th 2020 |
| UK | Not in the next 30 days |
| GERMANY | May 25th 2020 |
| USA | Not in the next 30 days |
| WORLD | Not in the next 30 days |
World prediction graph
A sinusoid with the X axis sitting on a sloping ramp
Stay safe!!
approaching off the bow 