COVID-19 DEATHS PREDICTION WITH ORACLE MACHINE LEARNING NOTEBOOKS | UPDATE 4


The model predicts the future deaths based on daily deaths reported by the source of information for the next 30 days from the date of calculation onwards.

Source of information: https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv

Algorithm: EXPONENTIAL_SMOOTHING

Prediction step: 30 days onwards

Date of calculation: 17th, May 2020 13:00 CEST

Prediction tool: Oracle Autonomous Database version 18c, Always Free instance created in Frankfurt datacenter on 4th Apr 2020

Disclaimer: This is not a scientific research work. It is just the output of a set of powerful tools and technologies. As it is, with no warranties. Use it as your own risk.

See also this post

Table of predictions

Total deaths
reported
on 17th may
Prediction calculated as of
23/Apr/2020
Prediction calculated as of
28/Apr/2020
Prediction calculated as of
3/may/2020
Prediction calculated as of
10/may/2020
Prediction calculated as of
17/may/2020
CHINA4,6383,3533,3533,3533,3533,353
ITALY31,76332,53130,19737,30532,52234,023
SPAIN27,65027,08725,98426,72627,82528,268
UK34,46629,67126,21344,29837,63843,473
GERMANY7,9149,6988,4048,3867,8418,227
USA88,754108,86083,572103,769122,335119,166
WORLD311,675338,568281,737368,233399,626433,254
Total deaths prediction table

When deaths will be (almost) zero?

Adding a new table depicting the date in which deaths will be theoretically zero.

COUNTRYZero deaths predicted date as of May 17th 2020
CHINAApr 18th 2020
ITALYJun 6th 2020
SPAINMay 26th 2020
UKNot in the next 30 days
GERMANYMay 25th 2020
USANot in the next 30 days
WORLDNot in the next 30 days
Zero line crossing according with today’s data

World prediction graph

A sinusoid with the X axis sitting on a sloping ramp

Stay safe!!

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