COVID-19 COMPARISON OF DEATHS IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES BY USING THE SAME PREDICTION ALGORITHM | UPDATE 2


The model predicts the future deaths based on daily deaths reported by the source of information for the next 30 days from the date of calculation onwards. This prediction is updated every 5 days.

Source of information: https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv

Algorithm: EXPONENTIAL_SMOOTHING

Prediction step: 30 days onwards

Date of calculation: 3th, May 2020 15:oo CET

Prediction tool: Oracle Autonomous Database version 18c, Always Free instance created in Frankfurt datacenter on 4th Apr 2020

Disclaimer: This is not a scientific research work. It is just the output of a tool. As it is, with no warranties. Use it as your own risk.

See also this post

Comments

Slight rise in forecasts according to the source of information.

Total official deaths on 3rd mayPrediction on
23/Apr/2020
Prediction on
28/Apr/2020
Prediction on
3/may/2020
CHINA4,6373,3533,3533,353
ITALY28,71032,53130,19737,305
SPAIN25,26427,08725,98426,726
UK28,13129,67126,21344,298
GERMANY6,6499,6988,4048,386
USA66,385108,86083,572103,769
WORLD243,476338,568281,737368,233
Deaths prediction table

China

Area under the graph: 3353

Italy

Area under the graph: 37305

Spain

Area under the graph: 26726

14th of may zero crossing

UK

Area under the graph: 44298

Germany

Area under the graph: 8386

USA

Area under the graph: 103769

World

Area under the graph: 368233

Hope it helps! :-((

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