The model predicts the future deaths based on daily deaths reported by the source of information for the next 30 days from the date of calculation onwards. This prediction is updated every 5 days.
Source of information: https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv
Algorithm: EXPONENTIAL_SMOOTHING
Prediction step: 30 days onwards
Date of calculation: 3th, May 2020 15:oo CET
Prediction tool: Oracle Autonomous Database version 18c, Always Free instance created in Frankfurt datacenter on 4th Apr 2020
Disclaimer: This is not a scientific research work. It is just the output of a tool. As it is, with no warranties. Use it as your own risk.
See also this post
Comments
Slight rise in forecasts according to the source of information.
| Total official deaths on 3rd may | Prediction on 23/Apr/2020 | Prediction on 28/Apr/2020 | Prediction on 3/may/2020 | |
| CHINA | 4,637 | 3,353 | 3,353 | 3,353 |
| ITALY | 28,710 | 32,531 | 30,197 | 37,305 |
| SPAIN | 25,264 | 27,087 | 25,984 | 26,726 |
| UK | 28,131 | 29,671 | 26,213 | 44,298 |
| GERMANY | 6,649 | 9,698 | 8,404 | 8,386 |
| USA | 66,385 | 108,860 | 83,572 | 103,769 |
| WORLD | 243,476 | 338,568 | 281,737 | 368,233 |
China
Area under the graph: 3353
Italy
Area under the graph: 37305
Spain
Area under the graph: 26726
UK
Area under the graph: 44298
Germany
Area under the graph: 8386
USA
Area under the graph: 103769
World
Area under the graph: 368233
Hope it helps! :-((
