COVID-19 COMPARISON OF DEATHS IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES BY USING THE SAME PREDICTION ALGORITHM | UPDATE 1


The model predicts the future deaths based on daily deaths reported by the source of information for the next 30 days from the date of calculation onwards. This prediction is updated every 5 days.

Source of information: https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv

Algorithm: EXPONENTIAL_SMOOTHING

Prediction step: 30 days onwards

Date of calculation: 28th, Apr 2020 23:oo CET

Prediction tool: Oracle Autonomous Database version 18c, Always Free instance created in Frankfurt datacenter on 4th Apr 2020

Disclaimer: This is not a scientific research work. It is just the output of a tool. As it is, with no warranties. Use it as your own risk.

See also this post

Comments

It seems the world maximum have been reached, all the curves converge to cero now. Te prediction now estimates less deaths than before. Italy, Spain and UK will reach cero in less than the 30 days that the prediction is configured to project.

PREDICTION DATE23/Apr/202028/Apr/2020
CHINA3,3533,353
ITALY32,53130,197
SPAIN27,08725,984
UK29,67126,213
GERMANY9,6988,404
USA108,86083,572
WORLD338,568281,737
Deaths prediction table

China

Area under the graph: 3353

Italy

Area under the graph: 30197

17th of may prediction line crosses 0

Spain

Area under the graph: 25984

12th of may prediction line crosses 0

UK

Area under the graph: 26213

19th of may prediction line crosses 0

Germany

Area under the graph: 8404

USA

Area under the graph: 83572

World

Area under the graph: 281737

Hope it helps! :-((

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