The model predicts the future deaths based on daily deaths reported by the source of information for the next 30 days from the date of calculation onwards. This prediction is updated every 5 days.
Source of information: https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv
Algorithm: EXPONENTIAL_SMOOTHING
Prediction step: 30 days onwards
Date of calculation: 28th, Apr 2020 23:oo CET
Prediction tool: Oracle Autonomous Database version 18c, Always Free instance created in Frankfurt datacenter on 4th Apr 2020
Disclaimer: This is not a scientific research work. It is just the output of a tool. As it is, with no warranties. Use it as your own risk.
See also this post
Comments
It seems the world maximum have been reached, all the curves converge to cero now. Te prediction now estimates less deaths than before. Italy, Spain and UK will reach cero in less than the 30 days that the prediction is configured to project.
| PREDICTION DATE | 23/Apr/2020 | 28/Apr/2020 |
| CHINA | 3,353 | 3,353 |
| ITALY | 32,531 | 30,197 |
| SPAIN | 27,087 | 25,984 |
| UK | 29,671 | 26,213 |
| GERMANY | 9,698 | 8,404 |
| USA | 108,860 | 83,572 |
| WORLD | 338,568 | 281,737 |
China
Area under the graph: 3353
Italy
Area under the graph: 30197
Spain
Area under the graph: 25984
UK
Area under the graph: 26213
Germany
Area under the graph: 8404
USA
Area under the graph: 83572
World
Area under the graph: 281737
Hope it helps! :-((
approaching off the bow 